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The third quarter Tenth District Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions indicates the share of bankers expecting further declines in income in the fourth quarter of 2017 was smaller than a year ago in each state.From 2014 to 2016, an increasing number of bankers in Kansas, the Mountain States, Nebraska and Oklahoma expected farm income to be lower in the next quarter. Whereas a majority of bankers expected lower farm income in 2016, less than half of bankers in each state had the same expectations in 2017.Despite higher (annual average) profit margins in 2017, risks to the cattle outlook still persist.Larger inventories have begun to weigh on prices in the second half of 2017.“Expanding trade opportunities is of vital importance to our producers and having Sen.Fischer directly involved in those discussions will ensure Nebraska’s pork farmers are well represented.”Nebraska’s pork farmers offer their sincere congratulations to Sen. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) began gathering information about farm economics and production practices from farmers and ranchers across Nebraska, as the agency conducts the third and final phase of the 2017 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS).In western Missouri, a region where crop production has been very strong in recent years, the share of bankers expecting lower farm income decreased for a third straight year. One mitigating factor of increasing global competition has been trade deals, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
In addition to lower prices and negative profit margins in the second half of 2017, one concern for ranchers has been the increasing variability of cattle prices.In 2014, the larger range was due to a steady increase in prices from January to November.However, during the last three years, increasing price variability in a period of lower prices has contributed to added concern and uncertainty in the outlook for cattle producers.Yields for corn and soybeans have been above 20-year trend levels since 2014 and have contributed to increasing inventories. share of world crop exports was forecast to be 28 percent. In fact, the value of agricultural exports to both NAFTA partners more than doubled following the implementation of NAFTA.In 2017, corn yields in the Tenth District were slightly below trend, likely due to reports of moderate to severe wind damage, but in the United States, higher yields have contributed to significant increases in inventories, measured as stocks-to-use ratios. corn and soybean inventories is a risk to the outlook because larger inventories have been linked to lower prices. It is unclear what would happen if the United States fails to renegotiate NAFTA.